
Written by John Becker, Toronto, ON
As appeared in OGS Families, Vol. 38. No. 3, 1999
Back in 1985 Alex Shoumatoff wrote an account of kinship and genealogy called The
Mountain of Names, A History of the Human Family (A Touchstone Book published
by Simon & Schuster, Inc., New York.) He speaks about an amazing paper by
Robert C. Gunderson called Tying Your Pedigree into Royal, Noble and Medieval Families.
Gunderson invented the term pedigree collapse. This is a phenomenon which is
ubiquitous and makes every genealogist's life a little easier. When one's pedigree
collapses, one has a reducing number of ancestors to search for. Here is how it works.
We all are blessed with two parents, four grandparents, eight great grandparents and so
on. If the average generation is twenty-five years, in 1200 years (back to 800 AD, the
time of Charlemagne) each person has 281.5 trillion grandparents. That's the way geometric
progressions work. The number of grandparents doubles every 25 years and in 12OO years or
48 generations, 281.5 trillion names would be on your pedigree.
But hold on, you say! In 800 AD there were not that many people on the whole planet.
How could I - or any person - have that many grandparents? The answer is that while you must
have this number of grandparents, given the imperatives of human
procreation, they are not all different people. Some names on your pedigree
appear twice, three times or even hundreds of times in the 1200 years. Cousins have
married and, if they were first cousins, their offspring will have only six great
grandparents rather than the normal eight. Those offspring will have pedigrees which have
"collapsed" from 8 to 6 or 25% in the 4th generation back. That 25 %
collapse will be present in each and every one of the 44 generations back to 800 AD. The
same phenomenom occurs when 2nd, 3rd, 4th or 5th
cousins marry although the percentage collapse is not as dramatic. A dramatic
collapse occurs when siblings marry as was the norm for Egyptian pharaohs and Inca kings.
In those cases there is a 50% collapse (from 4 to 2) at the 3rd generation, the
grandparents.
In the 1990s we may not think that this is a common occurrence but the impact on our
pedigrees must be significant or the population on the earth in the past must have been
much larger than it was. The facts speak for themselves. There could be no other
explanation for how the number of one's grandparents can be reconciled with known
population figures.
Studies in various parts of the globe have confirmed this and provide us with some case
studies:
- In 1964 it was found that a third of the marriages in Andhra Pradesh, southern Indian,
were between first cousins and that almost 12% of marriages were between uncles and their
nieces.
- In 1875 in England 7.5 % of Jewish marriages were between 1st cousins, a
result of their society being relatively isolated from the main stream community.
- King Alfonso XIII of Spain (1886-1941) had only eight different people as his great
great grandparents rather than the normal sixteen, a 50% collapse of his pedigree at the 5th
generation.
- Prince Charles' pedigree has been examined by Gunderson who found that 17 generations
back when Charles should have had 65,536 progenitors, he only had about 23,000, a collapse
to 35 % of the theoretical.
- A great deal is known about the family histories of the Amish who came to North America
from Switzerland in the 18th century. It is estimated for one family about whom
a very complete genealogy has been compiled that 21.5 % of 627 marriages in this family
were between 2nd cousins or closer.
- Mr. K. W. Wachtel, a demographer cited by Shoumatoff, built a probability model for a
child born in England in 1947. Around the time of King John who reigned from 1199 AD to
1216 AD, this 1947 child would have about two million grandparents in the same generation.
This represents about 37% of the progenitors required 30 generations back. This is the
first type of pedigree collapse that occurs. The child would be descendant
from 80% of all the people in England at that time.
- But now a collapse in the absolute number of progenitors starts to occur for
this 1947 child. The actual number of different grandparents would start to decrease at
this point - 30 generations back. Theoretically the further one goes back from this point
the smaller the number of different grandparents there would be until one reached one's
theoretical Adam and Eve. Put in graphical terms and viewing the child's
pedigree from the bottom (now) to the top (early), the number of names creates a diamond
with one person at the bottom in 1947, two million people in the generation 700 years
earlier and then an ever-decreasing number dwindling to the original Adam and
Eve, say, several thousands of years before that at the very top of the chart.
There are, of course, many genetic, medical and hereditary aspects of kinship.
All of these are made more fascinating and complex by the intermarriages within
families and small tribes that have been taking place |